Gaza Ceasefire Hanging in the Balance

Frank Lowenstein, former U.S. Middle East Special Envoy and now J Street Policy Center Fellow, analyzes where we're at and what to watch for in the coming days

With Phase I of the Gaza ceasefire agreement set to end on Saturday, March 1, we are fast approaching a critical turning point in the Gaza war. While the final round of hostage for prisoner exchanges agreed to under Phase I was completed on Thursday, February 27 it is unclear whether the parties will actually proceed to Phase II.

Negotiations on the final issues of returning all hostages, completing the IDF withdrawal, and permanently ending the war that were supposed to start several weeks ago have only just begun. Prime Minister Netanyahu finally agreed to send a team to Cairo on February 27, but it is unclear whether they will engage on substantive issues. Netanyahu has already made clear that the IDF will not be withdrawing from the Philadelphi corridor, the buffer zone between Gaza and Egypt, as expressly required under agreement.

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar said on February 27 that the Israelis’ were primarily interested in extending Phase I and the framework for incremental hostage for prisoner exchanges. It is not clear whether Hamas would agree to that. One Hamas spokesman suggested that it is “ready for an extension” of Phase I, while reiterating its commitment to fully implementing the current agreement. Today, however, Hamas rejected a proposal for a six-week extension of Phase I and insisted on proceeding to Phase II immediately.

To read the full J Street Policy Center issue brief, click here.