The Knights Of Trump's Cacophonous Round Table

With a massive opportunity available for a game-changing, comprehensive, regional agreement in the Middle East, what are the chances the new Trump team can seize the moment?

Asked whether the incoming Trump administration could actually advance diplomacy on Israel-Palestine and the Middle East more broadly, the conventional take on my side of the political spectrum starts and ends with a simple no.

An administration intent on mass deportations, eliminating entire arms of the federal government and undercutting personal freedoms and rights isn’t easily seen as an agent of positive change in the Middle East.

Considering as well that the President-elect draws significant political support from the right-wing of the Jewish community and hard-line Christian Zionists, it’s not irrational that many anticipate a bright green light for the wildest fantasies of Israel’s far right settlement movement.

Nonetheless, I’m using this week’s Substack to offer some pre-New Year’s food for alternative thought.

Imagine, if you will, the scene around the table in the Cabinet Room come late January when the President convenes his advisers to set Middle East policy. For fun, I’ve taken to calling this gathering the “Knights of Trump’s Round Table” – a chaotic assembly with a cacophony of voices representing extraordinarily diverse views and interests.

The first seat at the table will be filled by what I call the “Zealots” – hardline voices from the Evangelical Christian and Jewish communities who believe that all the land between the River and the Sea belongs under Jewish sovereignty – because that is God’s will.

To these folks, settlements are not illegal, there is no such thing as an occupation, and annexation is just the natural next step in the divine plan.

This is the seat held by former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, a Christian Zionist who is Trump’s nominee to be Ambassador to Israel. Huckabee speaks for others like Miriam Adelson and her $100 million donation to the Trump campaign and David Friedman, President Trump’s first-term ambassador and outspoken settlement advocate.

Next to the Zealots are the Hawks. These are more traditional Israel-right-or-wrong Republicans – folks like incoming National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, a former Green Beret and Dick Cheney aide, and Secretary of State-designate Marco Rubio, a dedicated opponent of the Iran nuclear agreement.

These are the voices who will be arguing for continued and perhaps increased aid to Israel without oversight or accountability, renewed maximum pressure on, and even military action against, Iran’s nuclear program or the regime itself.

A third seat at the table belongs to the Isolationists like Vice-President-elect JD Vance and Trump-whisperer Tucker Carlson. Isolationism clearly resonates with Donald Trump, who has railed against Middle East wars, pressed Netanyahu to stop the fighting in Gaza before Inauguration Day and posted on social media as the Assad regime crumbled, “THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT.”

Next to them, there’s a seat for what I call the Dealmakers who channel a different part of Trump’s persona. These are the real estate guys who brought about the Abraham Accords in the first term and are looking to build on them in the second with a Saudi normalization deal.

Trump’s close friend, New York developer Steve Witkoff has been named Special Envoy to the Middle East. In the background advising will be others with an interest in extending the Accords like Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt. This seat gives voice to Trump’s ambition to close the “ultimate deal” and realize his Nobel Prize fantasies.

I’ve hinted in other Substacks that I believe there is a mega-deal to be had in the Middle East in the coming years. I refer to it as the “23-state solution” – a comprehensive, regional agreement with security, economic and other components.

It could be a win across the board for all concerned. Israel gets normalization with its neighbors and full acceptance and integration regionally and even globally. Sunni Arab countries – Israel’s immediate neighbors and countries across the Gulf and North Africa – get Israel onside in dealing with the region’s security and economic challenges, including Iran.

And the only way it comes together is if Palestinians get, in the words of the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, a “clear, irreversible path to a state.” The Crown Prince may not be the partner one would choose, but regional stability and normalization won’t happen without Saudi leadership.

This is a deal that the Israeli public could be convinced to accept – unlike an Israeli-Palestinian two-state agreement which has lost broad appeal. It’s a deal that many Sunni Arab countries are ready to make. And only a deal like this will bring Palestinians the investments needed to rebuild Gaza, revitalize the Palestinian Authority and lay the groundwork for a state.

The Dealmakers can win the argument at the “Round Table” by convincing the President an agreement like this is in his own best interest rather than allowing conflict to continue to fester and suck the US in.

Finally, there’s another seat that’s been pulled up to the table representing the tens of thousands of Arab- and Muslim-American voters in key states who swung their support in November to Trump and the Republican Party.

One of the men who led the effort, Massad Boulos, is a Lebanese-American businessman who happens to be the father-in-law of Trump’s daughter Tiffany. Boulos will be at the table as senior adviser in the White House on Arab and Middle East Affairs.

All of these voices and influences create an environment in the West Wing far more complex than those hoping for – or fearing – annexation in the first hundred days might imagine.

I am firmly convinced that, at some point in the next four years, the opportunity for a meaningful regional agreement will present itself, and it’s not impossible to imagine a President enamored of big ticket successes looking to seize it. Israel’s right wing will find it much harder to say no to President Trump than they would have to President Biden.

Here in the pro-Israel, pro-peace camp, we should be open to the idea that the impending chaos and cacophony at the “Round Table” mean the dynamics at play in the incoming administration are more complex than they may at first appear. Those of us working to resolve the conflict should remain alert to the possibilities and stand ready to nurture them.