The Mythology of the Jewish Vote

The clear takeaway from polling of Jewish voters this cycle is that – once again – right-wing efforts to drive a wedge between Jewish voters and the Democratic Party on Israel failed.

It’s one of the great myths of American politics: that American Jewish votes are determined by candidate views on Israel and that deviating from hawkish “Israel-right-or-wrong” positioning will cost candidates Jewish political support.

This fear has warped US policy toward Israel and the Middle East for decades. Dispelling this myth and demonstrating the breadth of Jewish support for balanced, nuanced policy is why we started J Street 16 years ago.

Every election cycle, AIPAC, the Republican Jewish Coalition and other right-of-center groups and donors spend mega-dollars in fruitless efforts to drive a wedge between Jewish voters and the Democratic Party on Israel. And – cycle after cycle – the effort fails spectacularly.

So too in 2024.

This election was marked by seismic shifts in the politics of numerous demographics, but the major story line of the 2024 Jewish vote is the remarkable stability of the community’s historic voting patterns.

J Street has conducted an “exit poll” of Jewish voters – the only one of its kind – in every election since 2010. (I’ll be happy to share why these polls measure Jewish opinion more accurately than network exit polls. Ping me for a memo on the topic!).

Cycle after cycle, we have found 70+ percent support among Jewish Americans for Democratic candidates for President, the Senate and the House. That’s been the case – on average – since we started polling and since the networks started exit polls in 1972.

So too this year. Kamala Harris won the Jewish vote nationally, 71-26. In Pennsylvania, where we commissioned a separate poll of Jewish voters, the margin was higher: 75-23.

You can find the full poll, crosstabs and explanations at this link, but here are a few key takeaways:

• Jewish Americans are not single-issue voters. They cared this cycle, as always, about the same things as all Americans – and specifically Democrats: democracy, reproductive freedom and the economy. Just 14 percent of Jewish voters named Israel as one of their top two voting issues, up a notch from the average of 7-8 percent we have found in prior cycles. Given the year we’ve just experienced, the real surprise is that this number isn’t higher.

• Trump and the Republican Party can’t make inroads because they are so deeply unpopular. Trump personally and the Republican Party generally are viewed unfavorably by 71 percent of Jewish voters.

• American Jews understand that criticism of Netanyahu and his government’s policies isn’t anti-Israel or antisemitic. 90 percent of Jewish Americans believe you can be pro-Israel and critical of Israeli government policies. Large majorities believe it’s not antisemitic to criticize how Israel is conducting the war in Gaza or even to say Israel is committing war crimes. Bibi Netanyahu himself is viewed unfavorably by a remarkable 63 percent of Jewish voters.

• Jewish Americans favor diplomatic over military solutions. They overwhelmingly support the traditional concept of a two-state solution and the newer framing of a regional, comprehensive agreement. And, when it comes to the threat from Iran, Jewish voters favor diplomacy and negotiation over military action by 65-35 and restarting negotiations with Iran to address its nuclear program by 64-36.

Here’s the bottom line for the political and policy leadership of the Democratic Party: there is nearly wall-to-wall support among the Jewish voters who support them to take policy positions that are more nuanced and balanced when it comes to Israel and the Middle East.

Kamala Harris was right: There is no need to make Israel-Palestine a binary choice. Pursue policies that balance Israeli security and Palestinian rights and you’ll be speaking the language of nearly the entirety of the Democratic voting base in the Jewish community.

Don’t shy from criticism of the Netanyahu/Smotrich/Ben Gvir government. Not only will you be lining up with the Jewish American majority, you’ll be aligned with hundreds of thousands of Israelis protesting in the streets and with the bulk of the Israeli security establishment.

Oppose steps toward annexation that are now far more likely in the wake of Tuesday’s election results.

Support sanctioning Israeli leaders and institutions who violate international law and democratic norms and values.

Demand enforcement of our own laws that require Palestinians receive the humanitarian assistance they need to simply survive.

Of course, the one-quarter to one-third of Jewish Americans who are more right-wing will oppose you. But remember – this is a minority of Jewish Americans and they aren’t voting for you anyway because they are or lean Republican.

Democratic politicians and policy makers should see in these numbers confirmation that groups like J Street – who stand up for Israel’s security and champion the cause of a future Palestinian state – represent the American Jewish majority and, most importantly, the overwhelming consensus of those who vote for them.

AIPAC and others will continue to raise and spend tens of millions and flex their outsized financial muscle to instill fear. They smartly invested in a handful of races where candidates probably would have lost without their money.

But there’s no reason to fear standing up for an American approach to Israel and the Middle East that is nuanced, balanced and rooted in our shared interests and values.

The Democratic Party needs a deep, honest self-examination about what went wrong and what needs to change. I’ll save my thoughts on that for another post.

But one topic it can strike from its list of concerns is fear that it’s losing Jewish support because Democrats aren’t hawkish enough on Israel.

In fact, the Democratic Party would benefit from leaning the other way. Be a true friend of Israel, a supporter of its long-term security, by advancing a more balanced and nuanced approach. Politically, not only will you retain your overwhelming advantage in the Jewish community, but you may enhance your appeal to other key constituencies you need in the years to come.

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