This should be the week the Gaza war ends

Polls show it’s what Americans and Israelis want – and there can be little doubt it’s what families in Gaza want too.

As Prime Minister Netanyahu flies to DC this week for his third visit in six months, speculation is running rampant about what the week ahead could hold.

There’s a world in which much could go right. After all, diplomacy is breaking out on numerous fronts: Gaza, Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabia and more.

And there is – needless to say – much that could go wildly off the rails.

If the past six months have taught us anything, it’s that in Donald Trump’s world there’s no way to know which way things are likely to break.

Though I maintain deep skepticism about turning to military action as a first resort, I acknowledge that tactical military successes have shifted the landscape in the Middle East dramatically:

• Hezbollah has been effectively sidelined, and Lebanon has a chance to stabilize and re-establish a functioning government.

• Hamas, though still a threat, has been incapacitated and much of its leadership eliminated and infrastructure shattered.

• Assad is gone, and a new regime in Syria is cautiously, pragmatically engaging with Arab neighbors, Israel, and the US.

• Iran is weaker than at any time since the 1979 revolution – its nuclear program in disarray, its defenses humbled, its regional reach diminished.

These tactical achievements have begun restoring Israel’s sense of security that was shattered on October 7th, a tragic day of epic failures of strategy, intelligence and defense for which Netanyahu has thus far avoided any accountability.

And even these positive developments don’t change the fact that Netanyahu should and could have long ago reached an agreement to end the war and bring the hostages home.

Without question, the news we all hope to hear this week is that a ceasefire and hostage release deal have been reached to end the war, bring every hostage home and allow planning for the postwar future to begin.

Of course, we all know how singularly uninterested in precisely that outcome Netanyahu has been throughout the war. He continually undercut his negotiating team, shifted the goalposts for an agreement and toyed with American diplomats in two administrations.

Look for him to once again seek a ‘temporary’ deal not a permanent one – one that allows him to extend the fighting, seemingly endlessly. As the thousands of Israelis protesting every week will attest, for months he’s been more interested in prolonging the war to keep his coalition intact and himself out of prison than in making a deal.

If there’s one person who has the leverage to press Netanyahu to change course, it’s President Trump. So we’ll see this week if he’s willing to use the leverage he has post-Iran to make this nightmare end.

On Israel’s northern front, there’s talk of a possible landmark security agreement with the new Syrian government. Under such a deal, Israeli forces could move out of Syrian territory and back to the parts of the Golan Heights held by Israel since 1967.

Syrian agreement to an interim ‘separation of forces’ agreement along these lines would be a significant step.

Additionally this week, there are reports of a possible meeting in Oslo between US mediator Steve Witkoff and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Arragchi. Despite Trumpian claims that Iran’s nuclear program has been ‘obliterated’, diplomacy remains necessary to assure a permanent end to any Iranian quest for a nuclear weapon.

Finally, there’s never-ending speculation regarding steps toward Saudi-Israel normalization. Saudi Arabia remains key to opening the door to a comprehensive regional security arrangement along the lines of the 23-state solution J Street supports to fully end the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Progress on that front has been and remains contingent on Israel taking specific, credible and irreversible steps toward Palestinian statehood – precisely what Netanyahu has to avoid to keep his coalition together. Once again, if there’s one person with the leverage to push a larger package forward, it’s President Trump.

Not to be negative, but it’s probably easier to envision the many ways the coming week could go off track.

The Israeli right would love nothing more than to see President Trump announce US recognition of Israeli sovereignty over at least parts of the West Bank. A green light for partial annexation – even as part of an effort to cajole an end to the Gaza War – would be a terrible setback, a blatant violation of international law, and a boon for anti-Israel extremists.

Other imaginable and negative scenarios include the President again laying out a version of his “Riviera of the Middle East” plan or pushing for a US “takeover” of Gaza.

We are at a moment of historic opportunity – and risk. It's no secret that these are not the leaders I would choose to meet this moment.

But they are the leaders we have, and here’s what we can at least hope the President may do:

• Press Netanyahu to agree to a framework to end the war and get every hostage home.

• Lay out a plan with Arab allies (Gulf states, Egypt and Jordan) for a transitional administration of Gaza overseen by Arab states but with a clear tie to the Palestinian Authority – that advances security, governance reform and redevelopment.

• Commit to partner with others to make the crucial investments needed to end the humanitarian nightmare, rebuild Gaza and ensure longer term stability.

• Press the Palestinian Authority to implement a program of reform, democratization and good governance that leads to integration of Gaza and West Bank administration into a single Palestinian government that – if it meets its commitments – will become a recognized state.

• Invite Arab states to reiterate their commitment to fully normalize relations with Israel provided Israel commits to a comprehensive regional security and economic architecture that includes a Palestinian state.

This week, we may not get all the answers but we’ll get some indication whether self-interest and the lure of history can push an unpredictable President in the right direction.

The stakes couldn’t be higher.