President Trump: Don't Get Played by Netanyahu

You helped seal a deal that at least for now stopped the fighting, brought hostages home and started aid flowing. Seeing it through will require zero tolerance for the Prime Minister's usual games.

Politically, the timing of the Gaza ceasefire, coming a day before the inauguration, couldn’t have been better. Deserved or not, the incoming Commander-in-Chief staked a claim to at least some of the credit for stopping a war his predecessor hadn’t been able to for sixteen months.

His team – particularly Steve Witkoff – do seem to have brought some much-needed pressure to bear, and the President’s early weeks now promise pictures of hostage families reuniting and aid finally reaching families in Gaza.

It’s a meaningful early deliverable, particularly to young voters, minority voters and anti-war voters – some of the surprising elements of Trump’s 2024 winning coalition.

But now comes the massive risk that it all crashes down in a matter of weeks.

Extreme voices in the Israeli government aren’t hiding their desire to sabotage the deal and restart the war. The chances of getting to phase two of the deal are threatened by stepped-up military operations and violent settler attacks in the West Bank. And, of course, Netanyahu himself has said he wants the ceasefire to be temporary, complaining of being pressed into the deal by Trump’s team.

On the other side, there’s a terrorist organization, Hamas, which can’t be counted on to abide by its commitments - stoking tensions with theatrics around the hostage releases and failing to provide required information on the hostages’ status.

A return to war would be a horrific catastrophe for desperate families trapped in Gaza and for hostage families cruelly robbed of hope; it would also be politically damaging for Donald Trump.

Horrific images of death and destruction on TV and social media sapped Biden’s popularity. They could do the same to the new President.

Renewed fighting would bring calls to send billions more to Netanyahu to pursue endless conflict – and of course bring the ever-present risk of US troops being drawn into a wider regional war. Neither of these are steps Trump seems eager to take.

The line of attack for critics writes itself: Biden could make the deal; a President who fancies himself Dealmaker-in-Chief was unable to close it.

Trump can blame Hamas – Netanyahu doubtless will – but the domestic political fallout will land at the White House doorstep.

This deal can be made to work, but it will take the strong, continued US leverage to press and incentivize both sides to progress to the next stages.

While the president’s team and US allies will have to continue smartly applying pressure on Hamas to keep them at the table, they will also have to be clear-eyed in pushing back on the spin and excuses Netanyahu and his allies will try to use to bring down the deal.

If the past is any guide, Netanyahu will use the pretext that the other side broke the deal first as he edges into his own violations. Watch this week whether Israel actually pulls forces from northern Gaza as promised. Another favorite play: undercutting his own negotiating team with conflicting messages while continually shifting the goalposts.

The US and other mediators will have to listen to those, like the hostage families and international voices, who truly want the deal to hold and press Netanyahu’s government to accept fair outcomes – even if it risks tearing the Prime Minister’s government apart, forcing him into a new coalition or to elections.

Trump must be clear about his redlines and force Netanyahu to play within them rather than bring down the deal: The war has to stop for good. Every hostage must come home.

Longer term, there’s another deal to be had - a true ‘Deal of the Century’ - that that none of Trump’s predecessors proved capable of landing. One probably worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize.

It’s a deal that offers Israeli leaders regional integration, including Saudi normalization, and paves the way for Gulf states and others to pour money into Gaza’s reconstruction.

It’s a deal that offers Palestinians a path to recognition of a true, free Palestinian state in return for reforms to the Palestinian Authority and security guarantees for Israel.

It’s a deal that presses Israelis to give up on outlying settlements and fantasies of annexation in favor of peace, democracy and an end to the country’s increasing international isolation.

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The lesson for Donald Trump: Only a US president wielding all the tools of dealmaking and diplomacy – not just a blank check for arms and settlements – can ensure that this new temporary calm is made permanent. Only a president with zero tolerance for Netanyahu’s gamesmanship will deliver peace, freedom and safety for all.